Why Trump's win is bad for Paris Agreement

NEW DELHI: Donald Trump's win may be a bad news for climate action under the Paris Agreement. He had not only repeatedly questioned the science underlying climate change, but also once called it a "hoax" and pledged to pull the United States out of the global climate deal. Though the US under Trump will not be able to withdraw itself from the deal during his Presidentship (2017-20) due to the Agreement's time-specific

exit clause, the country's preparedness and response to take its promised climate action will certainly take a back seat.

The Paris Agreement prohibits exit for a period of three years from the date of ratification by a particular country. Besides, it also makes it mandatory to give a notice period of one year for withdrawal -- it means the US will not be able to pull out from the global deal within four years.

Since the US which had ratified the deal in early September, the country will have to be with the Agreement till September, 2020. But if it decides to withdraw, the move will cloud the US action as Trump is not only the climate change sceptic, but also determined to revive coal industry - a move which will put him at odds with the provisions of the Paris Agreement that expects the countries to move towards renewable energy for cutting down carbon emissions.

His win, therefore, on Wednesday, sent a kind of shock wave to climate experts and environmentalists across the globe. They fear that if the US would withdraw from the deal or go slow on all its promised climate action as well as on extending finance to the Green Climate Fund (GCF) to help developing countries adapt to the impacts of global warming, it would demoralise the global community which had worked hard to arrive at the Paris Agreement in December last year.

"All the promises made by the Obama administration on finance and technology to the developing countries will go down the drain. The UN global negotiations on climate change, therefore, is likely to be left in the lurch because of Trump", said Chandra Bhushan, climate change expert and deputy director general of the Delhi-based think-tank Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).

Noting that the US is likely to play a regressive role in the international effort to fight the challenges of climate change, Bhushan said, "The US did exactly the same during the Kyoto Protocol. We should learn from this episode and not let it happen again. The international community should never agree on a global agreement just for the convenience of one country, even if that country happens to be the most powerful (and polluting) country of the world".The apprehension that the US under Trump is likely to promote more and more use of coal and gas in the country had its echo at the ongoing UN climate change conference at Marrakech in Morocco on Wednesday.

"We would like to remind the world that the USA cannot hold climate action to ransom anymore. Climate action is no more just dependent on USA alone. India, China and other G20 countries are playing a leadership role with their commitments and actions to reduce emissions," said Sanjay Vashist, director of Climate Action Network South Asia (CANSA) on the sidelines of the COP22 at Marrakech.Other analysts even warned the US that the move, if any, to withdraw from the climate deal will damage the country's credibility. Kelly Stone, ActionAid policy analyst, said, "The U.S. has joined the Paris Agreement and must continue to meet its climate obligations. Leaving this important international agreement will damage our credibility with important overseas partners and would be a major setback in the fight against climate change".

Referring to the impacts of climate change on US, Kelly said, "This is a global crisis that President-elect Trump will have to address".